Google rolled out two updates recently, Caffeine, and the Mayday update.

The quick takeaway, according to Google’s Matt Cutts, is that Caffeine is a complete overhaul of how Google indexes the web, and they are now able to index it much, much faster. In some instances, webpage updates are being indexed by Google in near real-time. WebProNews is following the updates closely, and you can read their analysis here. WPN also did this interview with Matt Cutts that is worth watching:

It’s worth noting that Matt emphasizes that the Caffeine update does not affect how Google ranks sites (for that, see Mayday) but it’s all about speed of indexing, size of index, and so forth. However, in the same interview, he did say that Caffeine includes better spam filters, including filters to catch paid text links.

The Mayday update, by contrast, does affect how sites are ranked. The recent update is an algorithm change, and according to Mr. Cutts, it is designed to improve the user experience by spotting quality signals (or lack thereof) on webpages. What does that mean? Well, in layman’s English it means crappy pages, especially pages that might show up in the SERPs for long tail searches, will have a harder time ranking in future. Auto-generated pages, and content farms, will be hit the hardest, according to Cutts. How to deal with it? Same old same old. Put out better quality, unique content for the user. Can you ever remember a time when Google didn’t say that?

More WebProNews Videos

Matt McGee wrote in Search Engine Land recently that the much-anticipated Google Caffeine Update, originally tipped for rollout “after the holidays” by Google’s Matt Cutts, has been pushed back several months. My own observations of sites I manage suggest this may not be the case, and that Google, as usual, may be obfuscating the real story.

For those not in the loop, Google’s Caffeine update of their search index or indices is a major change in the way they “search and index” the web. While its implications, particularly on organic search rankings for millions of sites, will not be fully known until it does roll out completely, we do know that it’s going to be a big change.

Like many other internet marketers, I was checking my analytics very closely just after the holidays for signs of the Caffeine update. Contrary to what Matt McGee learned from Google, it’s my observation that major changes in search results are already occurring, all in a strikingly similar pattern, based on what has happened to three totally unrelated sites that I manage.

Beginning with a remarkable spike in Google traffic on the weekend of January 2-3, all three sites have received major increases in traffic, due not, as far as I can see, to changes in rankings, but to a major increase in the raw number of keywords delivering organic traffic, and that traffic has remained higher ever since (though with some fluctuating).

The three sites share no common marketing tactics, no similar “optimizing”. They are in unrelated, diverse niches.

Site A. Average monthly traffic about 125,000.

Site B. Average monthly traffic about 1,500.

Site C. Average monthly traffic about 500.

Around January 3, almost as if someone had fired a starting pistol, traffic from Google for all three sites started to rise.

Here are the numbers:

Six factors lead me to think this is a result of the Google Caffeine update. If I’m correct, the impact of Caffeine could be huge.

• The three sites are unrelated
• The pattern of increased keywords leading to increased visitors is consistent across all three sites
• All three sites began to spike within the same 24 hour period
• All three sites, prior to this event, experienced steady traffic patterns, with no unusual spikes
• All three sites have remained at or near these levels ever since
• No SEO or marketing was done on any of the sites at the time to account for the spikes

To date, these vastly-improved traffic numbers have remained high or even improved.

February versus January organic Google traffic shows:

• Site A      – 3%
• Site B   + 16%
• Site C     + 9%

Maybe it’s not Google Caffeine. Maybe it’s something else. Maybe I just got lucky.

But I don’t think so. The patterns is too clear, especially the start date. I believe this is Google Caffeine. And, as I wrote in an earlier post about Google Caffeine,  I think the impact is going to be enormous.

SEO guru Danny Sullivan has a thoughtful, and thought-provoking article over at Search Engine Land, wherein he states that “On Friday afternoon, Google made the biggest change that has ever happened in search engines, and the world largely yawned”.

That’s a fairly strong statement, but Danny is one of the world’s top SEO experts, so it’s worth paying attention.

What’s going on here? Google, in a blog post on Friday about Personalized Search, let the world know that the personalization of search results (especially the tailoring of said results to a searcher’s previous search behavior) will in future be applied to all searchers of the Google indices, whether or not they are “logged in” via a Google account.

Previously, as I can certainly attest, if you had a Google account and you were logged in for a session, you could expect to see all kinds of personalization and other tweaks and twitches in your Google search results. Now, everyone will get the same treatment.

What kind of personalization are we talking about here? According to Google, they are trying to give users the most relevant results. Let’s say you have a search history (going back 180 days, which is the current Google holding period for your search history) of looking at sites about big cats, lions, etc. If you search on  the term “jaguar” you will probably see results about big cats first. But if your history shows you are a fast car buff, you might be looking at the latest offering from Jaguar Motors. And so on.

Danny thinks it’s all a really big deal. From the perspective of search industry watchers, it really is. And he’s right, it deserved a much bigger announcement from Google. The shift from homogenized search results to personalized, or unique search results, is a ground-shifting change in the essence of search technology.

But does the broader world really care? I doubt it. I think most people — and this is just my opinion — but I think most people are getting a little jaded by the amount of internet-related developments that are churned out in the space of a single 24 hour news cycle. Let’s be honest — it’s getting a little crazy. Hey — now you can tweet all 6,557 of your Facebook friends straight from your mobile app as you are standing outside your favorite restaurant (why is new technology always so concerned about new restaurants) and let them know (in 140 characters or less) that the  joint is offering 2-for-1 pitchers of beer between 5:00 pm and 7:00 pm. Hooray! Chalk up another small victory for mankind in the development of civilization. Sorry Danny, but I just don’t think that many people would care about this latest development from Google. They probably think their search results are already personalized anyway.

So did Google underplay the switchover? Of course they did. They released it on a Friday afternoon, for God’s sake, which of course is an automatic acknowledgement that the announcing entity is trying to downplay something.  But does the expansion of personalized search matter that much?

Actually, I think it does, in the long run. I think it’s an important technological step, but I don’t think we will be able to see or judge all the ramifications for quite some time.  And for all the SEO types who complain and moan about the change — get with the program. This is not new. It has been coming down the pike for years. It doesn’t change the underlying golden rule of SEO — make your content worth linking to. That’s what it’s all about.

Google’s much-anticipated, major update of how it indexes and ranks websites, known as the “Caffeine” update,  is scheduled to start rolling out after the holidays — and since the holidays are just about here, now seemed like a good time to speculate on what it may bring and how to adapt.

There is no question, as this Search Engine Land article makes clear, but that it’s going to be a huge update. Reading between the lines of Google’s comments, it’s my opinion that for SEO operatives,  it could turn out to be the Mother of all Google updates, eclipsing even the notorious “Florida” update of 2003.

Why do I think this?

• This isn’t just an update. It’s the rollout of a whole new architecture of Google Search.

• As Vanessa Fox noted in her Search Engine Land article, Caffeine appears to impact Google’s “crawling, indexing and ranking” behavior. Geez. What else is there?

• Google’s spam czar Matt Cutts is on record as saying the changes are “primarily in how we index”. Okay — well, that certainly could be the whole ball game, no?

• Everything Google does these days demonstrates their unwavering determination to dominate the web. Controlling spam and reining in SEO tactics (not the same thing, btw) are just a part of this, but a significant part.

That said, I’ve been thinking quite a lot about what the update is likely to contain that will directly impact SEO, and I’ve got three predictions to make.

1. Rewriting of dynamic urls to appear static will no longer just be discouraged. The new algorithm will penalize the ranking of sites that do it. Over a year ago, Google officially said “if you’re using URL rewriting, you could be doing harm rather than good.” And they went on to say “providing search engines with dynamic URLs should be favored over hiding parameters to make them look static.” In other words, folks, they basically said “don’t do it”.  The SEO community got their collective knickers in a twist over this, and continue to rant about it. But I submit that the SEO community is miffed simply because url rewriting is something they have been doing for a long time, and it has become institutionalized. And like any institution, they like to hang on to the status quo. SEO’s got caught napping when it transpired that sculpting page rank wasn’t actually working, and hadn’t been for nearly a year — and no-one noticed. Don’t get caught napping on this issue. Why do I think Google will slam url rewriting in Caffeine? That’s easy — it’s a twofer. URL rewriting is interfering with how Google likes to crawl and index, and they can attack the problem by doing more than just discouraging it. They can penalize it. Last September’s announcement was just the warning shot. Caffeine will see the battle joined. Second, URL rewriting is an SEO tactic, and they can plug that little loophole at the same time. A classic two-for-one, and it fits the spirit of what the Caffeine update is all about (”Crawling, indexing and ranking”).

2. Blog comments, even those that are not “no-followed”, will lose whatever remaining SEO juice they have. Blog comments are such a glaring example of spam, and a major pollutant of the web, that it’s hard to imagine why Google hasn’t been more clear already that a link found in a blog comment will pass no juice or “signal” of any value.  I expect this to become very clear in the Caffeine update.

3. Crappy directories will get their final comeuppance. I know, crappy directories (you all know what I mean) aren’t supposed to give much SEO boost already. But you know what? They still do, to some extent, if a site gets enough links from them. I don’t think Google sees them as more than a minor irritant, but what the heck, if they’re doing a major update anyway — why not send a signal? So I anticipate some boat rocking in this area — maybe even some penalties for sites that exceed a certain portion of their links from that particular corner of the SEO underworld.

So, those are my three holiday predictions for what’s coming down the ‘pike with Caffeine. Love to hear what others are expecting, or what you think about my prognostications. Overall, I think and hope that Caffeine will do good things both for users and for SEO. What’s good for users is good, long-term, for the SEO industry. The interests of users and the industry are not misaligned. If anything, they should be on the same page. In 2010, maybe they will be a bit more so.